caa a22 4500 605471703 CHVBK 20210128100334.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes [Elektronische Daten] [Nikolaos Christidis, Peter Stott, Francis Zwiers] Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event attribution has provided pertinent scientific evidence for a number of such warm events for which the forced climate response rises above internal climatic variability. Although the demand for attribution assessments is higher shortly after an event occurs, most scientific studies become available several months later. A formal attribution methodology is employed here to pre-compute the changing odds of very warm years and seasons in regions across the world. Events are defined based on the exceedence of temperature thresholds and their changing odds are measured over a range of pre-specified thresholds, which means assessments can be made as soon as a new event happens. Optimal fingerprinting provides observationally constrained estimates of the global temperature response to external forcings from which regional information is extracted. This information is combined with estimates of internal variability to construct temperature distributions with and without the effect of anthropogenic influence. The likelihood of an event is computed for each distribution and the change in the odds estimated. Analyses are conducted with seven climate models to explore the model dependency of the results. Apart from colder regions and seasons, characterised by greater internal climate variability, the odds of warm events are found to have significantly increased and temperatures above the threshold of 1-in-10year events during 1961-1990 have become at least twice as likely to occur. Crown Copyright, 2014 Detection and attribution nationallicence Regional temperature extremes nationallicence Anthropogenic forcings nationallicence Christidis Nikolaos Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK aut Stott Peter Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK aut Zwiers Francis Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Sedgewick C183, University of Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Victoria, BC, Canada aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1547-1564 0930-7575 45:5-6<1547 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Christidis Nikolaos Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Stott Peter Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zwiers Francis Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Sedgewick C183, University of Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Victoria, BC, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1547-1564 0930-7575 45:5-6<1547 2015 45 382