caa a22 4500 605471886 CHVBK 20210128100335.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2388-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2388-x Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments [Elektronische Daten] [Juan Gómez-Navarro, Johannes Werner, Sebastian Wagner, Jürg Luterbacher, Eduardo Zorita] This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality of a regional paleoclimate simulation at 45km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Precipitation nationallicence Palaeoclimate nationallicence Climate reconstruction nationallicence Regional climate modelling nationallicence Proxy nationallicence PPE nationallicence Gómez-Navarro Juan Physics Institute and Oescher Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012, Bern, Switzerland aut Werner Johannes Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, 7800, 5020, Bergen, Norway aut Wagner Sebastian Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Plank-Strasse 1, Geesthacht, Germany aut Luterbacher Jürg Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Germany aut Zorita Eduardo Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Plank-Strasse 1, Geesthacht, Germany aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1395-1413 0930-7575 45:5-6<1395 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2388-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2388-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gómez-Navarro Juan Physics Institute and Oescher Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012, Bern, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Werner Johannes Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, 7800, 5020, Bergen, Norway aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wagner Sebastian Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Plank-Strasse 1, Geesthacht, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Luterbacher Jürg Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zorita Eduardo Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Plank-Strasse 1, Geesthacht, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1395-1413 0930-7575 45:5-6<1395 2015 45 382