caa a22 4500 605472092 CHVBK 20210128100336.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7 Global warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation: assessments from the CMIP5 models [Elektronische Daten] [K. Sooraj, Pascal Terray, M. Mujumdar] The evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) in a global warming environment is a serious scientific and socio-economic concern since many recent studies have demonstrated the weakening nature of large-scale tropical circulation under anthropogenic forcing. But, how such processes affect the ASM circulation and rainfall is still a matter of debate. This study examines the climate model projections from a selected set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to provide a unified perspective on the future ASM response. The results indicate a robust reduction in the large-scale meridional gradient of temperature (MGT) at upper levels (200hPa) over the ASM region, associated with enhanced ascendance and deep tropospheric heating over the equatorial Pacific in the future climate. The differential heating in the upper troposphere, with concomitant increase (decrease) in atmospheric stability (MGT), weakens the ASM circulation, promotes a northward shift of the monsoon circulation and a widening of the local Hadley cell in the eastern Indian sector. An examination of the water vapour budget indicates the competing effects of the thermodynamic (moisture convergence) and dynamics processes (monsoon circulation) on future ASM rainfall changes. The former component wins out over the later one and leads to the intensification of Indian monsoon rainfall in the CMIP5 projections. However, the diagnostics further show a considerable offset due to the dynamic component. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Asian summer monsoon nationallicence Meridional gradient in deep tropospheric heating nationallicence Atmospheric stability nationallicence Thermodynamic and dynamic components nationallicence Sooraj K. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411008, Pune, India aut Terray Pascal LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universites (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, France aut Mujumdar M. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411008, Pune, India aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 233-252 0930-7575 45:1-2<233 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sooraj K. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411008, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Terray Pascal LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universites (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mujumdar M. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411008, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 233-252 0930-7575 45:1-2<233 2015 45 382