caa a22 4500 605472122 CHVBK 20210128100336.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2401-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2401-4 Multi-week prediction of South-East Asia rainfall variability during boreal summer in CFSv2 [Elektronische Daten] [Ren-Feng Liu, Wanqiu Wang] In this paper we analyze the multi-week prediction bias and skill from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts for 1999-2012. The analyses focus on the prediction of the rainfall variability over South-East Asia during boreal warm seasons and the dependence of the prediction on the activity of intrasesaonal leading modes. It is shown that the prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation is comparable between the total anomalies and intraseasonal anomalies during the first 2weeks. After week 2, the prediction skill drops substantially and the skill for total anomalies is largely from the prediction for the interannual variability. Moreover, the forecast skill tends to be higher when the amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is larger, especially for the BSISO. It is noted that the prediction skill over South-East Asia depends on the phase of the BSISO. One deficiency in the CFSv2 is that the northward propagation of the forecast BSISO is generally slower than the observed. Springer-Verlag (outside the USA), 2014 Multi-week prediction nationallicence Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation nationallicence Monthly forecast nationallicence Intraseasonal variability nationallicence Liu Ren-Feng Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taipei, Taiwan aut Wang Wanqiu CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, 5830 University Research Court, Room 3004, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 493-509 0930-7575 45:1-2<493 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2401-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2401-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Liu Ren-Feng Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taipei, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Wanqiu CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, 5830 University Research Court, Room 3004, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 493-509 0930-7575 45:1-2<493 2015 45 382