caa a22 4500 605472165 CHVBK 20210128100336.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2412-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2412-1 ENSO in CMIP5 simulations: network connectivity from the recent past to the twenty-third century [Elektronische Daten] [Ilias Fountalis, Annalisa Bracco, Constantine Dovrolis] A new methodology based on complex network analysis is applied to state-of-the-art climate model simulations to assess their performances, quantify uncertainties, and uncover changes in global linkages between past and future projections. Network properties of modeled sea surface temperature and precipitation over 1956-2005 are constrained towards observations or reanalyses, and their differences quantified using two metrics. Projected changes from 2051 to 2300 under the scenario with the highest representative and extended concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and ECP8.5) are then determined. The network of models capable of reproducing well major climate modes in the recent past, change little during this century. In contrast, among those models the uncertainties in the projections after 2100 are substantial, and are primarily associated with divergences in the representation of the modes of variability, particularly of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and their connectivity, and therefore with their intrinsic predictability, more so than with differences in the mean state evolution. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Network analysis nationallicence CMIP5 models comparison nationallicence Historical experiments nationallicence Future projections nationallicence ENSO nationallicence Fountalis Ilias College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA aut Bracco Annalisa School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA aut Dovrolis Constantine College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 511-538 0930-7575 45:1-2<511 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2412-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2412-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fountalis Ilias College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bracco Annalisa School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dovrolis Constantine College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 511-538 0930-7575 45:1-2<511 2015 45 382