caa a22 4500 605472211 CHVBK 20210128100337.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2351-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2351-x Regional and large-scale influences on seasonal to interdecadal variability in Caribbean surface air temperature in CMIP5 simulations [Elektronische Daten] [Jung-Hee Ryu, Katharine Hayhoe] We evaluate the ability of global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce observed seasonality and interannual variability of temperature over the Caribbean, and compare these with simulations from atmosphere-only (AMIP5) and previous-generation CMIP3 models. Compared to station and gridded observations, nearly every CMIP5, CMIP3 and AMIP5 simulation tends to reproduce the primary inter-regional features of the Caribbean annual temperature cycle. In most coupled model simulations, however, boreal summer temperature lags observations by about 1month, with a similar lag in the simulated annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST), and a systematic cold bias in both climatological annual mean air temperature and SST. There is some improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5 but the bias is still marked compared to AMIP5 and observations, implying that biases in the annual temperature cycle may originate in the ocean component of the coupled models. This also suggests a tendency for models to over-emphasize the influence of SSTs on near-surface temperature, a bias that may be exacerbated by model tendency to over-estimate ocean mixed layer depth as well. In contrast, we find that both coupled and atmosphere-only models tend to reasonably simulate the response of observed temperature to global temperature, to regional and large-scale variability across the Caribbean region and the Gulf of Mexico, and even to more remote Atlantic and Pacific influences. These findings contribute to building confidence in the ability of coupled models to simulate the effect of global-scale change on the Caribbean. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Caribbean surface temperature nationallicence Sea-surface temperature nationallicence Climate and teleconnection indices nationallicence Oceanic mixed layer depth nationallicence Coupled climate models nationallicence Ryu Jung-Hee Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University, MS1015, 79409, Lubbock, TX, USA aut Hayhoe Katharine Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University, MS1015, 79409, Lubbock, TX, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 455-475 0930-7575 45:1-2<455 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2351-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2351-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ryu Jung-Hee Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University, MS1015, 79409, Lubbock, TX, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hayhoe Katharine Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University, MS1015, 79409, Lubbock, TX, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 455-475 0930-7575 45:1-2<455 2015 45 382