caa a22 4500 605472262 CHVBK 20210128100337.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0 Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events [Elektronische Daten] [Jagdish Krishnaswamy, Srinivas Vaidyanathan, Balaji Rajagopalan, Mike Bonell, Mahesh Sankaran, R. Bhalla, Shrinivas Badiger] The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are widely recognized as major drivers of inter-annual variability of the Indian monsoon (IM) and extreme rainfall events (EREs). We assess the time-varying strength and non-linearity of these linkages using dynamic linear regression and Generalized Additive Models. Our results suggest that IOD has evolved independently of ENSO, with its influence on IM and EREs strengthening in recent decades when compared to ENSO, whose relationship with IM seems to be weakening and more uncertain. A unit change in IOD currently has a proportionately greater impact on IM. ENSO positively influences EREs only below a threshold of 100mm day−1. Furthermore, there is a non-linear and positive relationship between IOD and IM totals and the frequency of EREs (>100mm day−1). Improvements in modeling this complex system can enhance the forecasting accuracy of the IM and EREs. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Dynamic linear models nationallicence Generalised additive models nationallicence La Nina nationallicence Western Ghats nationallicence Indo-Gangetic plain nationallicence Krishnaswamy Jagdish Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, 560064, Bangalore, Karnataka, India aut Vaidyanathan Srinivas Foundation for Ecological Research, Advocacy and Learning (FERAL), Pondicherry Campus, 170/3 Morattandi, Auroville Post, 605101, Villupuram, Tamil Nadu, India aut Rajagopalan Balaji Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering and Co-operative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA aut Bonell Mike Centre for Water Law, Policy and Sciences Under the Auspices of UNESCO, University of Dundee, DD1 4HN, Dundee, Scotland, UK aut Sankaran Mahesh Ecology and Evolution Group, National Centre for Biological Sciences, TIFR, GKVK Campus, Bellary Road, 560065, Bangalore, India aut Bhalla R. Foundation for Ecological Research, Advocacy and Learning (FERAL), Pondicherry Campus, 170/3 Morattandi, Auroville Post, 605101, Villupuram, Tamil Nadu, India aut Badiger Shrinivas Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, 560064, Bangalore, Karnataka, India aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 175-184 0930-7575 45:1-2<175 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Krishnaswamy Jagdish Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, 560064, Bangalore, Karnataka, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vaidyanathan Srinivas Foundation for Ecological Research, Advocacy and Learning (FERAL), Pondicherry Campus, 170/3 Morattandi, Auroville Post, 605101, Villupuram, Tamil Nadu, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rajagopalan Balaji Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering and Co-operative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bonell Mike Centre for Water Law, Policy and Sciences Under the Auspices of UNESCO, University of Dundee, DD1 4HN, Dundee, Scotland, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sankaran Mahesh Ecology and Evolution Group, National Centre for Biological Sciences, TIFR, GKVK Campus, Bellary Road, 560065, Bangalore, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bhalla R. Foundation for Ecological Research, Advocacy and Learning (FERAL), Pondicherry Campus, 170/3 Morattandi, Auroville Post, 605101, Villupuram, Tamil Nadu, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Badiger Shrinivas Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, 560064, Bangalore, Karnataka, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/1-2(2015-07-01), 175-184 0930-7575 45:1-2<175 2015 45 382