Two key parameters for the El Niño continuum: zonal wind anomalies and Western Pacific subsurface potential temperature
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| 001 | 605472394 | ||
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| 005 | 20210128100338.0 | ||
| 007 | cr unu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210128e20151201xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-015-2550-0 |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2550-0 | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Two key parameters for the El Niño continuum: zonal wind anomalies and Western Pacific subsurface potential temperature |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Andy Lai, Michael Herzog, Hans-F. Graf] |
| 520 | 3 | |a Different types of El Niño (EN) events have recently been discussed. Based on NCEP-NOAA reanalysis data this analysis explores a number of key parameters that cause a range of EN types over the period 1980-2013. EN events are divided into three types depending on the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA): Central Pacific (CPEN), Eastern Pacific (EPEN), and Hybrid (HBEN). We find that EN is a continuous spectrum of events with CPEN and EPEN as the end members. This spectrum mainly depends on two key parameters: the 130°E-160°E Western Pacific 5-250m subsurface oceanic potential temperature anomaly about 1year before the EN peak (typically January and February), and the 140°E-160°W cumulative zonal wind anomaly (ZWA) between onset and peak of the EN event. Using these two parameters, about 70% of the total variance of the maximum SSTA realised in different Niño regions can already be explained up to 6months before the maximum SSTA occurs. This offers a rather simple potential for ENSO prediction. A necessary condition for the evolution of an EPEN, the Western Pacific is in the recharged state. Strong and sustained westerly wind anomalies in Western Pacific can then trigger a Kelvin wave propagating to the eastern Pacific. Both parameters, potential temperature and zonal wind anomaly, constructively interfere. For a CPEN, these parameters are much less important. Kelvin wave propagation is not involved in the evolution of the event. Instead, the Central Pacific warming is caused locally by a zonal advection feedback and local air-sea interaction as already demonstrated in previous studies. The HBEN occurs when both parameters interfere in different ways: (1) Western Pacific is weakly charged, but strong westerly ZWA are observed that reduce the equatorial upwelling in the Central Pacific while the triggered Kelvin wave is too weak to have a significant effect; (2) Western Pacific is strongly charged but only weak westerly ZWA develop, so that the resulting Kelvin wave cannot fully extend into the eastern-most Pacific. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Central Pacific El Niño |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a El Niño continuum |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Zonal wind anomalies |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Oceanic potential temperature |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Thermocline discharge-recharge state |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lai |D Andy |u Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Herzog |D Michael |u Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Graf |D Hans-F |u Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/11-12(2015-12-01), 3461-3480 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:11-12<3461 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2550-0 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2550-0 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Lai |D Andy |u Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Herzog |D Michael |u Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Graf |D Hans-F |u Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/11-12(2015-12-01), 3461-3480 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:11-12<3461 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | ||