Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones
| LEADER | caa a22 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 605472653 | ||
| 003 | CHVBK | ||
| 005 | 20210128100339.0 | ||
| 007 | cr unu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210128e20151201xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-015-2544-y |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2544-y | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Daniel Wright, Thomas Knutson, James Smith] |
| 520 | 3 | |a The eastern United States is vulnerable to flooding from tropical cyclone rainfall. Understanding how both the frequency and intensity of this rainfall will change in the future climate is a major challenge. One promising approach is the dynamical downscaling of relatively coarse general circulation model results using higher-resolution regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we examine the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones and associated rainfall properties over the eastern United States using Zetac, an 18-km resolution RCM designed for modeling Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Simulations of 1980-2006 tropical cyclone frequency and rainfall intensity for the months of August-October are compared against results from previous studies and observation-based datasets. The 1980-2006 control simulations are then compared against results from three future climate scenarios: CMIP3/A1B (late twenty-first century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (early and late twenty-first century). In CMIP5 early and late twenty-first century projections, the frequency of occurrence of post-landfall tropical cyclones shows little net change over much of the eastern U.S. despite a decrease in frequency over the ocean. This reflects a greater landfalling fraction in CMIP5 projections, which is not seen in CMIP3-based projections. Average tropical cyclone rain rates over land within 500km of the storm center increase by 8-17% in the future climate projections relative to control. This is at least as much as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which links a warmer atmosphere to greater atmospheric water vapor content. Over land, the percent enhancement of area-averaged rain rates from a given tropical cyclone in the warmer climate is greater for larger averaging radius (300-500km) than near the storm, particularly for the CMIP3 projections. Although this study does not focus on attribution, the findings are broadly consistent with historical tropical cyclone rainfall changes documented in a recent observational study. The results may have important implications for future flood risks from tropical cyclones. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag (outside the USA), 2015 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Tropical cyclones |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Extreme rainfall |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Floods |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Climate impacts |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Climate modeling |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Dynamical downscaling |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wright |D Daniel |u NASA Hydrological Sciences, Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, 20771, Greenbelt, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Knutson |D Thomas |u Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, 08542, Princeton, NJ, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Smith |D James |u Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, 08544, Princeton, NJ, USA |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/11-12(2015-12-01), 3365-3379 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:11-12<3365 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2544-y |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2544-y |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Wright |D Daniel |u NASA Hydrological Sciences, Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, 20771, Greenbelt, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Knutson |D Thomas |u Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, 08542, Princeton, NJ, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Smith |D James |u Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, 08544, Princeton, NJ, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/11-12(2015-12-01), 3365-3379 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:11-12<3365 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | ||