caa a22 4500 60547270X CHVBK 20210128100339.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8 Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks [Elektronische Daten] [B. Harvey, L. Shaffrey, T. Woollings] There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Storm tracks nationallicence Climate change nationallicence CMIP3 nationallicence Drivers of change nationallicence Polar amplification nationallicence Harvey B. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Shaffrey L. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Woollings T. Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/9-10(2015-11-01), 2847-2860 0930-7575 45:9-10<2847 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Harvey B. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shaffrey L. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Woollings T. Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/9-10(2015-11-01), 2847-2860 0930-7575 45:9-10<2847 2015 45 382