caa a22 4500 605472726 CHVBK 20210128100339.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4 Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings [Elektronische Daten] [Heather Andres, W. Peltier] We attribute climate variability in four independent reconstructions of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation over the twentieth century. The reconstructions exhibit substantial differences in the timing and amplitudes of climate variations. Linear, empirical models of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation variations on multi-decadal timescales are established from a suite of Community Climate System Model 3 simulations of the preindustrial millennium. They are compared against observational reconstructions after being tested against simulations of the industrial and future periods. Empirical estimates of variations over the industrial and future periods are correlated at greater than 0.95 with simulated values. Greenhouse gas increases account for the majority of the temperature and precipitation increases after the mid-1900s. In contrast to the simulations, observed temperatures and precipitation do not increase until the mid-1990s. Thus, the empirical models over-predict the response to greenhouse gases over the twentieth century. We conclude that CCSM3 is not capturing processes that are proving important to Greenland surface conditions. Furthermore, modes of North Atlantic variability exhibit opposite relationships with some observations compared with the simulations. In those cases, reversing the sign of this component of variability yields significant correlations between the estimated and observed accumulation values. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Greenland nationallicence Climate change nationallicence Climate reconstructions nationallicence Industrial period nationallicence Climate variability nationallicence Global simulations nationallicence Andres Heather Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., M5S 1A7, Toronto, ON, Canada aut Peltier W. Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., M5S 1A7, Toronto, ON, Canada aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/9-10(2015-11-01), 2919-2936 0930-7575 45:9-10<2919 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Andres Heather Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., M5S 1A7, Toronto, ON, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Peltier W. Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., M5S 1A7, Toronto, ON, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/9-10(2015-11-01), 2919-2936 0930-7575 45:9-10<2919 2015 45 382