caa a22 4500 605472823 CHVBK 20210128100340.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-015-2473-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2473-9 Contribution of phenology and soil moisture to atmospheric variability in ECHAM5/JSBACH model [Elektronische Daten] [Manik Bali, Dan Collins] Soil moisture and phenology are seasonally varying modes of the land system. Due to their seasonal persistence, they have the ability to predictably influence seasonal weather. Hence, their use in seasonal forecasts can potentially improve the skill of the forecasts. However a complete measure of their influence in geographical locations and in different seasons is not known. As a result, modern seasonal forecasting techniques have not been able to fully exploit their persistence in improving skill of seasonal forecasts. By measuring similarity between model ensemble members that are forced by soil moisture and phenology respectively, in this study, we identify global hot spots where soil moisture and phenology impact key atmospheric variables in spring and summer seasons. Results indicate that over South East Asia (SEA) and the Sahel the phenology and soil moisture impact precipitation to an equal extent. Results show that 5-7% of the variance in Indian summer monsoon precipitation is caused by soil moisture and phenology anomalies. Prior to the monsoon they influence predictors of the SEA monsoon. Hence, their persistence can be used to improve skill of seasonal forecasts, particularly of mesoscale systems like the SEA monsoon. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Phenology nationallicence Leaf Area Index nationallicence Monsoon nationallicence Bali Manik CICS/ESSIC, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut Collins Dan NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/9-10(2015-11-01), 2329-2336 0930-7575 45:9-10<2329 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2473-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2473-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bali Manik CICS/ESSIC, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Collins Dan NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/9-10(2015-11-01), 2329-2336 0930-7575 45:9-10<2329 2015 45 382