caa a22 4500 605473161 CHVBK 20210128100341.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2127-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2127-3 Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO [Elektronische Daten] [Hye-In Jeong, Joong-Bae Ahn, June-Yi Lee, Andrea Alessandri, Harry Hendon] A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December-January-February during the period of 1972-2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972-1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989-2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nationallicence Climate regime shift nationallicence Decadal variability nationallicence Seasonal predictability and prediction nationallicence Multi-model ensemble (MME) nationallicence Teleconnection nationallicence Jeong Hye-In APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan, Republic of Korea aut Ahn Joong-Bae Pusan National University, Pusan, Republic of Korea aut Lee June-Yi Institute of Environmental Studies, Pusan National University, 609-735, Pusan, Republic of Korea aut Alessandri Andrea Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile, Rome, Italy aut Hendon Harry Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/3-4(2015-02-01), 1073-1091 0930-7575 44:3-4<1073 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2127-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2127-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Jeong Hye-In APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan, Republic of Korea aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ahn Joong-Bae Pusan National University, Pusan, Republic of Korea aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lee June-Yi Institute of Environmental Studies, Pusan National University, 609-735, Pusan, Republic of Korea aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Alessandri Andrea Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile, Rome, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hendon Harry Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/3-4(2015-02-01), 1073-1091 0930-7575 44:3-4<1073 2015 44 382