caa a22 4500 605473315 CHVBK 20210128100342.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2139-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2139-z Probabilistic reconstructions of local temperature and soil moisture from tree-ring data with potentially time-varying climatic response [Elektronische Daten] [S. Tolwinski-Ward, M. Tingley, M. Evans, M. Hughes, D. Nychka] We explore a probabilistic, hierarchical Bayesian approach to the simultaneous reconstruction of local temperature and soil moisture from tree-ring width observations. The model explicitly allows for differing calibration and reconstruction interval responses of the ring-width series to climate due to slow changes in climatology coupled with the biological climate thresholds underlying tree-ring growth. A numerical experiment performed using synthetically generated data demonstrates that bimodality can occur in posterior estimates of past climate when the data do not contain enough information to determine whether temperature or moisture limitation controlled reconstruction-interval tree-ring variability. This manifestation of nonidentifiability is a result of the many-to-one mapping from bivariate climate to time series of tree-ring widths. The methodology is applied to reconstruct temperature and soil moisture conditions over the 1080-1129C.E. interval at Methusalah Walk in the White Mountains of California, where co-located isotopic dendrochronologies suggest that observed moisture limitations on tree growth may have been alleviated. Our model allows for assimilation of both data sources, and computation of the probability of a change in the climatic controls on ring-width relative to those observed in the calibration period. While the probability of a change in control is sensitive to the choice of prior distribution, the inference that conditions were moist and cool at Methuselah Walk during the 1080-1129C.E. interval is robust. Results also illustrate the power of combining multiple proxy data sets to reduce uncertainty in reconstructions of paleoclimate. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Bayesian hierarchical modeling nationallicence Biological-statistical modeling nationallicence Multiproxy paleoclimate reconstruction nationallicence Tree-ring width nationallicence Time-varying climate-paleodata relationship nationallicence Tolwinski-Ward S. AIR Worldwide Corporation, 02116, Boston, MA, USA aut Tingley M. Department of Meteorology and Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, 16802, University Park, PA, USA aut Evans M. Department of Geology, University of Maryland, 20742, College Park, MD, USA aut Hughes M. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 85721, Tucson, AZ, USA aut Nychka D. Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80305, Boulder, CO, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/3-4(2015-02-01), 791-806 0930-7575 44:3-4<791 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2139-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2139-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tolwinski-Ward S. AIR Worldwide Corporation, 02116, Boston, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tingley M. Department of Meteorology and Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, 16802, University Park, PA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Evans M. Department of Geology, University of Maryland, 20742, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hughes M. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 85721, Tucson, AZ, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nychka D. Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80305, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/3-4(2015-02-01), 791-806 0930-7575 44:3-4<791 2015 44 382