caa a22 4500 605473455 CHVBK 20210128100343.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2312-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2312-4 Uncertainty in the future change of extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin: the role of internal climate variability [Elektronische Daten] [S. van Pelt, J. Beersma, T. Buishand, B. van den Hurk, J. Schellekens] Future changes in extreme multi-day precipitation will influence the probability of floods in the river Rhine basin. In this paper the spread of the changes projected by climate models at the end of this century (2081-2100) is studied for a 17-member ensemble of a single Global Climate Model (GCM) and results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble. All climate models were driven by the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. An analysis of variance model is formulated to disentangle the contributions from systematic differences between GCMs and internal climate variability. Both the changes in the mean and characteristics of extremes are considered. To estimate variances due to internal climate variability a bootstrap method was used. The changes from the GCM simulations were linked to the local scale using an advanced non-linear delta change approach. This approach uses climate responses of the GCM to transform the daily precipitation of 134 sub-basins of the river Rhine. The transformed precipitation series was used as input for the hydrological Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model to simulate future river discharges. Internal climate variability accounts for about 30% of the total variance in the projected climate trends of average winter precipitation in the CMIP3 ensemble and explains a larger fraction of the total variance in the projected climate trends of extreme precipitation in the winter half-year. There is a good correspondence between the direction and spread of the changes in the return levels of extreme river discharges and extreme 10-day precipitation over the Rhine basin. This suggests that also for extreme discharges a large fraction of the total variance can be attributed to internal climate variability. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Climate change nationallicence Extreme precipitation nationallicence Rhine basin nationallicence Internal variability nationallicence Natural variability nationallicence Uncertainty nationallicence van Pelt S. Earth System Science - Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management, Wageningen UR, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands aut Beersma J. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands aut Buishand T. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands aut van den Hurk B. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands aut Schellekens J. Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV, Delft, The Netherlands aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 1789-1800 0930-7575 44:7-8<1789 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2312-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2312-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- van Pelt S. Earth System Science - Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management, Wageningen UR, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Beersma J. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Buishand T. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- van den Hurk B. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Schellekens J. Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV, Delft, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 1789-1800 0930-7575 44:7-8<1789 2015 44 382