caa a22 4500 605473536 CHVBK 20210128100343.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5 North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction [Elektronische Daten] [Susmitha Joseph, A. Sahai, S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhyay, P. Pillai, M. Rajeevan, Arun Kumar] The Indian summer monsoon of 2013 covered the entire country by 16 June, one month earlier than its normal date. Around that period, heavy rainfall was experienced in the north Indian state of Uttarakhand, which is situated on the southern slope of Himalayan Ranges. The heavy rainfall and associated landslides caused serious damages and claimed many lives. This study investigates the scientific rationale behind the incidence of the extreme rainfall event in the backdrop of large scale monsoon environment. It is found that a monsoonal low pressure system that provided increased low level convergence and abundant moisture, and a midlatitude westerly trough that generated strong upper level divergence, interacted with each other and helped monsoon to cover the entire country and facilitated the occurrence of the heavy rainfall event in the orographic region. The study also examines the skill of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) in predicting the Uttarakhand event on extended range time scale. The EPS is implemented on both high (T382) and low (T126) resolution versions of the coupled general circulation model CFSv2. Although the models predicted the event 10-12days in advance, they failed to predict the midlatitude influence on the event. Possible reasons for the same are also discussed. In both resolutions of the model, the event was triggered by the generation and northwestward movement of a low pressure system developed over the Bay of Bengal. The study advocates the usefulness of high resolution models in predicting extreme events. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Indian summer monsoon nationallicence Extreme events nationallicence Ensemble prediction system nationallicence Climate forecast system model nationallicence Joseph Susmitha Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Sahai A. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Sharmila S. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Abhilash S. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Borah N. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Chattopadhyay R. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Pillai P. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut Rajeevan M. Earth System Science Organization/Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, New Delhi, India aut Kumar Arun National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 2049-2065 0930-7575 44:7-8<2049 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Joseph Susmitha Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sahai A. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sharmila S. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Abhilash S. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Borah N. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chattopadhyay R. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pillai P. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, 411 008, Pashan, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rajeevan M. Earth System Science Organization/Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, New Delhi, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kumar Arun National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 2049-2065 0930-7575 44:7-8<2049 2015 44 382