caa a22 4500 605473617 CHVBK 20210128100343.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2405-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2405-0 Detection of early warning signals in paleoclimate data using a genetic time series segmentation algorithm [Elektronische Daten] [Athanasia Nikolaou, Pedro Gutiérrez, Antonio Durán, Isabelle Dicaire, Francisco Fernández-Navarro, César Hervás-Martínez] This paper proposes a time series segmentation algorithm combining a clustering technique and a genetic algorithm to automatically find segments sharing common statistical characteristics in paleoclimate time series. The segments are transformed into a six-dimensional space composed of six statistical measures, most of which have been previously considered in the detection of warning signals of critical transitions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach applied to paleoclimate data could effectively analyse Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events and uncover commonalities and differences in their statistical and possibly their dynamical characterisation. In particular, warning signals were robustly detected in the GISP2 and NGRIP $$\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}$$ δ 18 O ice core data for several DO events (e.g. DO 1, 4, 8 and 12) in the form of an order of magnitude increase in variance, autocorrelation and mean square distance from a linear approximation (i.e. the mean square error). The increase in mean square error, suggesting nonlinear behaviour, has been found to correspond with an increase in variance prior to several DO events for $$\sim $$ ∼ 90% of the algorithm runs for the GISP2 $$\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}$$ δ 18 O dataset and for $$\sim $$ ∼ 100% of the algorithm runs for the NGRIP $$\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}$$ δ 18 O dataset. The proposed approach applied towell-known dynamical systems and paleoclimate datasets provides a novel visualisation tool in the field ofclimate time series analysis. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Warning signals nationallicence Time series segmentation nationallicence Tipping points nationallicence Abrupt climate change nationallicence Genetic algorithms nationallicence Clustering nationallicence Nikolaou Athanasia Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands aut Gutiérrez Pedro Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain aut Durán Antonio Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain aut Dicaire Isabelle Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands aut Fernández-Navarro Francisco Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands aut Hervás-Martínez César Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 1919-1933 0930-7575 44:7-8<1919 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2405-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2405-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nikolaou Athanasia Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gutiérrez Pedro Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Durán Antonio Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dicaire Isabelle Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fernández-Navarro Francisco Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hervás-Martínez César Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 1919-1933 0930-7575 44:7-8<1919 2015 44 382