caa a22 4500 605473633 CHVBK 20210128100343.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2143-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2143-3 Simulating the link between ENSO and summer drought in Southern Africa using regional climate models [Elektronische Daten] [Arlindo Meque, Babatunde Abiodun] This study evaluates the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African droughts. It uses the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, computed using rainfall and temperature data) to identify 3-month drought over Southern Africa, and compares the observed and simulated correlation between ENSO and SPEI. The observation data are from the Climate Research Unit, while the simulation data are from ten RCMs (ARPEGE, CCLM, HIRHAM, RACMO, REMO, PRECIS, RegCM3, RCA, WRF, and CRCM) that participated in the regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) project. The study analysed the rainy season (December-February) data for 19years (1989-2008). The results show a strong link between ENSO and droughts (SPEI) over Southern Africa. The link is owing to the influence of ENSO on both rainfall and temperature fields, but the correlation between ENSO and temperature is stronger than the correlation between ENSO and rainfall. Hence, using only rainfall to monitor droughts in Southern Africa may underestimate the influence of ENSO on the droughts. Only few CORDEX RCMs simulate the influence of ENSO on Southern African drought as observed. In this regard, the ARPEGE model shows the best simulation, while CRCM shows the worst. The different in the performance may be due to their lateral boundary conditions. The RCA-simulated link between ENSO and Southern African droughts is sensitive to the global dataset used as the lateral boundary conditions. In some cases, using RCA to downscale global circulation models (GCM) simulations adds value to the simulated link between ENSO and the droughts, but in other cases the downscaling adds no value to the link. The added value of RCA to the simulated link decreases as the capability of the GCM to simulate the link increases. This study suggests that downscaling GCM simulations with RCMs over Southern Africa may improve or depreciate the simulated ENSO-drought link over the region. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Droughts nationallicence Southern Africa nationallicence ENSO nationallicence CORDEX nationallicence Regional climate models nationallicence Added value nationallicence Meque Arlindo Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa aut Abiodun Babatunde Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 1881-1900 0930-7575 44:7-8<1881 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2143-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2143-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Meque Arlindo Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Abiodun Babatunde Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/7-8(2015-04-01), 1881-1900 0930-7575 44:7-8<1881 2015 44 382