caa a22 4500 605473897 CHVBK 20210128100345.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2229-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2229-y Arctic summer storm track in CMIP3/5 climate models [Elektronische Daten] [Kazuaki Nishii, Hisashi Nakamura, Yvan Orsolini] Model performance and future projection of Arctic summertime storm-track activity and associated background states are assessed on the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3)/5 (CMIP5) climate models. Despite some improvement in the CMIP5 models relative to the CMIP3 models, most of the climate models underestimate summertime storm-track activity over the Arctic Ocean compared to six reanalysis data sets as measured locally as the variance of subweekly fluctuations of sea level pressure. Its large inter-model spread (i.e., model-to-model differences) is correlated with that of the intensity of the Beaufort Sea High and the lower-tropospheric westerlies in the Arctic region. Most of the CMIP3/5 models project the enhancement of storm-track activity over the Arctic Ocean off the eastern Siberian and Alaskan coasts, the region called the Arctic Ocean Cyclone Maximum, in association with the strengthening of the westerlies in the warmed climate. A model with stronger enhancement of the storm-track activity tends to accompany stronger land-sea contrast in surface air temperature across the Siberian coast, which reflects greater surface warming over the continent and slower warming over the Arctic Ocean. Other processes, however, may also be likely to contribute to the future changes of the storm-track activity, which gives uncertainty in the projection by multiple climate models. Our analysis suggests that further clarification of those processes that influence storm-track activity over the Arctic is necessary for more reliable future projections of the Arctic climate. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Arctic nationallicence Cyclone nationallicence Storm track nationallicence Climate change nationallicence Climate model nationallicence Nishii Kazuaki Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, 153-8904, Tokyo, Japan aut Nakamura Hisashi Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, 153-8904, Tokyo, Japan aut Orsolini Yvan NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Instituttveien 18, 2027, Kjeller, Norway aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1311-1327 0930-7575 44:5-6<1311 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2229-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2229-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nishii Kazuaki Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, 153-8904, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nakamura Hisashi Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, 153-8904, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Orsolini Yvan NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Instituttveien 18, 2027, Kjeller, Norway aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1311-1327 0930-7575 44:5-6<1311 2015 44 382