caa a22 4500 605473994 CHVBK 20210128100345.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2232-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2232-3 Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki [Elektronische Daten] [Samir Córdoba-Machado, Reiner Palomino-Lemus, Sonia Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, María Esteban-Parra] In this paper the forecast skill provided by the tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) associated with El Niño and El Niño Modoki over seasonal precipitation in Colombia has been evaluated through a lagged singular value decomposition analysis. The seasonal rainfall in many parts of the country can be predicted with suitable skill using the SST with a lead of one to four seasons. The response of precipitation to different phases of El Niño or El Niño Modoki is consistent with the state of the atmospheric fields of vertical velocity and velocity potential. Winter presents the best results for the prediction model, explaining the greatest percentage of square covariance fraction between the SST and lagged precipitation anomalies. The predictive capacity of these variability modes of SST for rainfall in Colombia is comparable or even higher in some seasons, particularly in winter, than the SST ability to explain the behavior of the precipitation during coetaneous seasons. The forecast of seasonal precipitation in Colombia validated in this work could be useful for planning and managing natural water resources in some regions of the country, particularly for the driest season of the year. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Seasonal precipitation forecast nationallicence Tropical Pacific SST nationallicence El Niño nationallicence El Niño Modoki nationallicence Colombia nationallicence Córdoba-Machado Samir Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut Palomino-Lemus Reiner Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut Gámiz-Fortis Sonia Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut Castro-Díez Yolanda Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut Esteban-Parra María Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1293-1310 0930-7575 44:5-6<1293 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2232-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2232-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Córdoba-Machado Samir Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Palomino-Lemus Reiner Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gámiz-Fortis Sonia Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Castro-Díez Yolanda Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Esteban-Parra María Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1293-1310 0930-7575 44:5-6<1293 2015 44 382