caa a22 4500 605474028 CHVBK 20210128100345.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2196-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2196-3 Projected impact of twenty-first century ENSO changes on rainfall over Central America and northwest South America from CMIP5 AOGCMs [Elektronische Daten] [Daniel Steinhoff, Andrew Monaghan, Martyn Clark] Due to the importance that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has on rainfall over the tropical Americas, future changes in ENSO characteristics and teleconnections are important for regional hydroclimate. Projected changes to the ENSO mean state and characteristics, and the resulting impacts on rainfall anomalies over Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador during the twenty-first century are explored for several forcing scenarios using a suite of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Mean-state warming of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, drying of Central America and northern Colombia, and wetting of southwest Colombia and Ecuador are consistent with previous studies that used earlier versions of the AOGCMs. Current and projected future characteristics of ENSO (frequency, duration, amplitude) show a wide range of values across the various AOGCMs. The magnitude of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies are currently underestimated by most of the models, but the model ensembles generally simulate the correct sign of the anomalies across the seasons around the peak ENSO effects. While the models capture the broad present-day ENSO-related rainfall anomalies, there is not a clear sense of projected future changes in the precipitation anomalies. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 ENSO nationallicence CMIP5 nationallicence Precipitation nationallicence Teleconnections nationallicence Steinhoff Daniel National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, USA aut Monaghan Andrew National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, USA aut Clark Martyn National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1329-1349 0930-7575 44:5-6<1329 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2196-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2196-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Steinhoff Daniel National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Monaghan Andrew National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Clark Martyn National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1329-1349 0930-7575 44:5-6<1329 2015 44 382