caa a22 4500 605474060 CHVBK 20210128100346.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3 Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability [Elektronische Daten] [Annarita Mariotti, Yutong Pan, Ning Zeng, Andrea Alessandri] Long-term climate change and decadal variability in the Mediterranean region during 1860-2100 are investigated based on observational data and the newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. Observational records show that decadal variability and a general tendency for annual-mean conditions to be warmer and drier have characterized the Mediterranean during 1860-2005. Consistency with CMIP5 model simulations including greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcings, suggest that forced changes have characterized aspects of Mediterranean climate during this period. Future GHG-forced change will take place in the midst of decadal variability, both internal and forced, as it has occurred in the past. However, future rates of forced warming and drying over the Mediterranean are projected to be higher than in the past century. The degree to which forced change and internal variability will matter depends on the climatic quantity being considered. For surface air temperature and Mediterranean Sea annual-mean evaporation and surface freshwater fluxes, variability and forced change have become comparable and the forced signal has already emerged from internal variability. For quantities with large internal variability and relatively small forced signal such as precipitation, forced change will emerge later on in the twenty-first century over selected regions and seasons. Regardless, the probability distribution of future precipitation anomalies is progressively shifting towards drier conditions. Overall, results highlight that both mean projected forced change and the variability that will accompany forced mean change should be considered in the development of future climate outlooks. Springer-Verlag (outside the USA), 2015 Climate change nationallicence Decadal climate variability nationallicence Mediterranean region nationallicence CMIP5 models nationallicence Mariotti Annarita OAR/Climate Program Office, NOAA, 1315 EastWest HWY, 20910, Silver Spring, MD, USA aut Pan Yutong University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA aut Zeng Ning University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA aut Alessandri Andrea ENEA, Rome, Italy aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1437-1456 0930-7575 44:5-6<1437 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mariotti Annarita OAR/Climate Program Office, NOAA, 1315 EastWest HWY, 20910, Silver Spring, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pan Yutong University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zeng Ning University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Alessandri Andrea ENEA, Rome, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/5-6(2015-03-01), 1437-1456 0930-7575 44:5-6<1437 2015 44 382