Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions
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| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Rodrigo Bombardi, Jieshun Zhu, Lawrence Marx, Bohua Huang, Hua Chen, Jian Lu, Lakshmi Krishnamurthy, V. Krishnamurthy, Ioana Colfescu, James Kinter III, Arun Kumar, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Shrinivas Moorthi, Patrick Tripp, Xingren Wu, Edwin Schneider] |
| 520 | 3 | |a Retrospective decadal forecasts were undertaken using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Decadal forecasts were performed separately by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), with the centers using two different analyses for the ocean initial conditions the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis. COLA also examined the sensitivity to the inclusion of forcing by specified volcanic aerosols. Biases in the CFSv2 for both sets of initial conditions include cold midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and rapid melting of sea ice associated with warm polar oceans. Forecasts from the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis showed strong weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), eventually approaching the weaker AMOC associated with CFSR. The decadal forecasts showed high predictive skill over the Indian, the western Pacific, and the Atlantic Oceans and low skill over the central and eastern Pacific. The volcanic forcing shows only small regional differences in predictability of surface temperature at 2m (T2m) in comparison to forecasts without volcanic forcing, especially over the Indian Ocean. An ocean heat content (OHC) budget analysis showed that the OHC has substantial memory, indicating potential for the decadal predictability of T2m; however, the model has a systematic drift in global mean OHC. The results suggest that the reduction of model biases may be the most productive path towards improving the model's decadal forecasts. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Decadal forecast and prediction |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Skill |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Biases |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a CFSv2 |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a CMIP5 |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Volcanic forcing |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bombardi |D Rodrigo |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhu |D Jieshun |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Marx |D Lawrence |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Huang |D Bohua |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen |D Hua |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lu |D Jian |u Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Krishnamurthy |D Lakshmi |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Krishnamurthy |D V. |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Colfescu |D Ioana |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kinter III |D James |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kumar |D Arun |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hu |D Zeng-Zhen |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Moorthi |D Shrinivas |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tripp |D Patrick |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu |D Xingren |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schneider |D Edwin |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 543-557 |x 0930-7575 |q 44:1-2<543 |1 2015 |2 44 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
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| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Bombardi |D Rodrigo |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Zhu |D Jieshun |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Marx |D Lawrence |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Huang |D Bohua |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Chen |D Hua |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Lu |D Jian |u Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Krishnamurthy |D Lakshmi |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Krishnamurthy |D V. |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Colfescu |D Ioana |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Kinter III |D James |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Kumar |D Arun |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Hu |D Zeng-Zhen |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Moorthi |D Shrinivas |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Tripp |D Patrick |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Wu |D Xingren |u National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Schneider |D Edwin |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 543-557 |x 0930-7575 |q 44:1-2<543 |1 2015 |2 44 |o 382 | ||