caa a22 4500 605474109 CHVBK 20210128100346.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions [Elektronische Daten] [Rodrigo Bombardi, Jieshun Zhu, Lawrence Marx, Bohua Huang, Hua Chen, Jian Lu, Lakshmi Krishnamurthy, V. Krishnamurthy, Ioana Colfescu, James Kinter III, Arun Kumar, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Shrinivas Moorthi, Patrick Tripp, Xingren Wu, Edwin Schneider] Retrospective decadal forecasts were undertaken using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Decadal forecasts were performed separately by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), with the centers using two different analyses for the ocean initial conditions the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis. COLA also examined the sensitivity to the inclusion of forcing by specified volcanic aerosols. Biases in the CFSv2 for both sets of initial conditions include cold midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and rapid melting of sea ice associated with warm polar oceans. Forecasts from the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis showed strong weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), eventually approaching the weaker AMOC associated with CFSR. The decadal forecasts showed high predictive skill over the Indian, the western Pacific, and the Atlantic Oceans and low skill over the central and eastern Pacific. The volcanic forcing shows only small regional differences in predictability of surface temperature at 2m (T2m) in comparison to forecasts without volcanic forcing, especially over the Indian Ocean. An ocean heat content (OHC) budget analysis showed that the OHC has substantial memory, indicating potential for the decadal predictability of T2m; however, the model has a systematic drift in global mean OHC. The results suggest that the reduction of model biases may be the most productive path towards improving the model's decadal forecasts. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Decadal forecast and prediction nationallicence Skill nationallicence Biases nationallicence CFSv2 nationallicence CMIP5 nationallicence Volcanic forcing nationallicence Bombardi Rodrigo Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Zhu Jieshun Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA aut Marx Lawrence Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA aut Huang Bohua Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Chen Hua Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Lu Jian Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA aut Krishnamurthy Lakshmi Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Krishnamurthy V. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA aut Colfescu Ioana Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Kinter III James Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Kumar Arun National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut Hu Zeng-Zhen National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut Moorthi Shrinivas National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut Tripp Patrick National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut Wu Xingren National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut Schneider Edwin Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 543-557 0930-7575 44:1-2<543 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bombardi Rodrigo Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhu Jieshun Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Marx Lawrence Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Huang Bohua Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chen Hua Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lu Jian Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Krishnamurthy Lakshmi Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Krishnamurthy V. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Colfescu Ioana Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kinter III James Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kumar Arun National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hu Zeng-Zhen National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Moorthi Shrinivas National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tripp Patrick National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wu Xingren National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Schneider Edwin Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22033, Fairfax, VA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 543-557 0930-7575 44:1-2<543 2015 44 382