Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions
| LEADER | caa a22 4500 | ||
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| 001 | 605474133 | ||
| 003 | CHVBK | ||
| 005 | 20210128100346.0 | ||
| 007 | cr unu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Bohua Huang, Jieshun Zhu, Lawrence Marx, Xingren Wu, Arun Kumar, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Magdalena Balmaseda, Shaoqing Zhang, Jian Lu, Edwin Schneider, James Kinter III] |
| 520 | 3 | |a There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean-atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model's fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Climate drift |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Decadal prediction |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a North Atlantic salinity |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Arctic sea ice |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Huang |D Bohua |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhu |D Jieshun |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Marx |D Lawrence |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu |D Xingren |u Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kumar |D Arun |u Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hu |D Zeng-Zhen |u Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Balmaseda |D Magdalena |u European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang |D Shaoqing |u Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lu |D Jian |u Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schneider |D Edwin |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kinter III |D James |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 559-583 |x 0930-7575 |q 44:1-2<559 |1 2015 |2 44 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Huang |D Bohua |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Zhu |D Jieshun |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Marx |D Lawrence |u Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Wu |D Xingren |u Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Kumar |D Arun |u Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Hu |D Zeng-Zhen |u Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Balmaseda |D Magdalena |u European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Zhang |D Shaoqing |u Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Lu |D Jian |u Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Schneider |D Edwin |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Kinter III |D James |u Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 559-583 |x 0930-7575 |q 44:1-2<559 |1 2015 |2 44 |o 382 | ||