caa a22 4500 605474141 CHVBK 20210128100346.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8 Projected changes in climate over the Indus river basin using a high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS) [Elektronische Daten] [R. Rajbhandari, A. Shrestha, A. Kulkarni, S. Patwardhan, S. Bajracharya] A regional climate modelling system, the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has been used to study future climate change scenarios over Indus basin for the impact assessment. In this paper we have examined the three Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations selected from 17-member perturbed physics ensemble generated using Hadley Centre Coupled Module. The climate projections based on IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analysed over three time slices, near future (2011-2040), middle of the twenty first century (2041-2070), and distant future (2071-2098). The baseline simulation (1961-1990) was evaluated with observed data for seasonal and spatial patterns and biases. The model was able to resolve features on finer spatial scales and depict seasonal variations reasonably well, although there were quantitative biases. The model simulations suggest a non-uniform change in precipitation overall, with an increase in precipitation over the upper Indus basin and decrease over the lower Indus basin, and little change in the border area between the upper and lower Indus basins. A decrease in winter precipitation is projected, particularly over the southern part of the basin. Projections indicate greater warming in the upper than the lower Indus, and greater warming in winter than in the other seasons. The simulations suggest an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the basin, but a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest. The Author(s), 2014 Climate change nationallicence Future climate scenario nationallicence Climate projection nationallicence Himalaya region nationallicence Indus basin nationallicence Rajbhandari R. Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal aut Shrestha A. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal aut Kulkarni A. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India aut Patwardhan S. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India aut Bajracharya S. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 339-357 0930-7575 44:1-2<339 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rajbhandari R. Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shrestha A. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kulkarni A. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Patwardhan S. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bajracharya S. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 339-357 0930-7575 44:1-2<339 2015 44 382