caa a22 4500 605474397 CHVBK 20210128100347.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2122-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2122-8 Assessment of natural climate variability using a weather generator [Elektronische Daten] [Erwan Brisson, Matthias Demuzere, Patrick Willems, Nicole van Lipzig] It is common practice to use a 30-year period to derive climatological values, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. However this convention relies on important assumptions, of which the validity can be examined by deriving the uncertainty inherent to using a limited time-period for deriving climatological values. In this study a new method, aiming at deriving this uncertainty, has been developed with an application to precipitation for a station in Europe (Westdorpe) and one in Africa (Gulu). The weather generator framework is used to produce synthetic daily precipitation time-series that can also be regarded as alternative climate realizations. The framework consists of an improved Markov model, which shows good performance in reproducing the 5-day precipitation variability. The sub-seasonal, seasonal and the inter-annual signals are introduced in the weather generator framework by including covariates. These covariates are derived from an empirical mode decomposition analysis with an improved stability and significance assessment. Introducing covariates was found to substantially improve the monthly precipitation variability for Gulu. From the weather generator, 1,000 synthetic time-series were produced. The divergence between these time-series demonstrates an uncertainty, inherent to using a 30-year period for mean precipitation, of 11% for Westdorpe and 15% for Gulu. The uncertainty for precipitation 10-year return levels was found to be 37% for both sites. The Author(s), 2014 Climate variability nationallicence Weather generator nationallicence Empirical mode decomposition nationallicence Precipitation modelling nationallicence Brisson Erwan KU Leuven Physical and Regional Geography Research Group, Celestijnenlaan, 200E, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut Demuzere Matthias KU Leuven Physical and Regional Geography Research Group, Celestijnenlaan, 200E, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut Willems Patrick KU Leuven Hydraulics division, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut van Lipzig Nicole KU Leuven Physical and Regional Geography Research Group, Celestijnenlaan, 200E, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 495-508 0930-7575 44:1-2<495 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2122-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2122-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Brisson Erwan KU Leuven Physical and Regional Geography Research Group, Celestijnenlaan, 200E, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Demuzere Matthias KU Leuven Physical and Regional Geography Research Group, Celestijnenlaan, 200E, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Willems Patrick KU Leuven Hydraulics division, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- van Lipzig Nicole KU Leuven Physical and Regional Geography Research Group, Celestijnenlaan, 200E, 3001, Leuven, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/1-2(2015-01-01), 495-508 0930-7575 44:1-2<495 2015 44 382