caa a22 4500 605474435 CHVBK 20210128100347.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2340-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2340-0 Prediction of Meiyu rainfall in Taiwan by multi-lead physical-empirical models [Elektronische Daten] [So-Young Yim, Bin Wang, Wen Xing, Mong-Ming Lu] Taiwan is located at the dividing point of the tropical and subtropical monsoons over East Asia. Taiwan has double rainy seasons, the Meiyu in May-June and the Typhoon rains in August-September. To predict the amount of Meiyu rainfall is of profound importance to disaster preparedness and water resource management. The seasonal forecast of May-June Meiyu rainfall has been a challenge to current dynamical models and the factors controlling Taiwan Meiyu variability has eluded climate scientists for decades. Here we investigate the physical processes that are possibly important for leading to significant fluctuation of the Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Based on this understanding, we develop a physical-empirical model to predict Taiwan Meiyu rainfall at a lead time of 0- (end of April), 1-, and 2-month, respectively. Three physically consequential and complementary predictors are used: (1) a contrasting sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (2) the tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic that is associated with North Atlantic Oscillation, and (3) a surface warming tendency in northeast Asia. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Philippine Sea anticyclonic anomalies and the anomalous cyclone near the southeastern China in the ensuing summer, which together favor increasing Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Note that the identified precursors at various lead-times represent essentially the same physical processes, suggesting the robustness of the predictors. The physical empirical model made by these predictors is capable of capturing the Taiwan rainfall variability with a significant cross-validated temporal correlation coefficient skill of 0.75, 0.64, and 0.61 for 1979-2012 at the 0-, 1-, and 2-month lead time, respectively. The physical-empirical model concept used here can be extended to summer monsoon rainfall prediction over the Southeast Asia and other regions. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Physical-empirical model nationallicence Seasonal forecast nationallicence Meiyu rainfall nationallicence East Asian summermonsoon nationallicence Philippine Sea anticyclone nationallicence North Atlantic Oscillation nationallicence Yim So-Young Korea Meteorological Administration, 156-720, Seoul, Korea aut Wang Bin International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut Xing Wen International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut Lu Mong-Ming Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau, 10048, Taipei, Taiwan aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3033-3042 0930-7575 44:11-12<3033 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2340-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2340-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yim So-Young Korea Meteorological Administration, 156-720, Seoul, Korea aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Bin International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Xing Wen International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lu Mong-Ming Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau, 10048, Taipei, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3033-3042 0930-7575 44:11-12<3033 2015 44 382