Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

Verfasser / Beitragende:
[Ida Gregersen, Henrik Madsen, Dan Rosbjerg, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen]
Ort, Verlag, Jahr:
2015
Enthalten in:
Climate Dynamics, 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3155-3169
Format:
Artikel (online)
ID: 605474672
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024 7 0 |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4  |2 doi 
035 |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4 
245 0 0 |a Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden  |h [Elektronische Daten]  |c [Ida Gregersen, Henrik Madsen, Dan Rosbjerg, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen] 
520 3 |a A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general increase from 1874 to present and an oscillation with a cycle of 25-40years. The magnitude of the extreme events also oscillates, but with a cycle of 15-30years and a smaller amplitude. Regional analysis of a larger Danish dataset with a shorter observations period found a countrywide low period in 1970-1979. It is furthermore concluded that the oscillation signal along the west coast of Denmark is dominated by the changeable coastal weather of this region. The eastern part of Denmark shows a more consistent signal, which partly can be explained by an index derived from sea level pressure differences between Gibraltar and Haparanda. The identification of a cyclic pattern in the extreme rainfall is highly relevant for our understanding of the non-stationarities in flood hazard. 
540 |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 
690 7 |a Extreme rainfall  |2 nationallicence 
690 7 |a Multi-decadal oscillation  |2 nationallicence 
690 7 |a Natural variation  |2 nationallicence 
690 7 |a East Atlantic pattern  |2 nationallicence 
700 1 |a Gregersen  |D Ida  |u Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Madsen  |D Henrik  |u DHI, Agern Alle 5, 2970, Hørsholm, Denmark  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Rosbjerg  |D Dan  |u Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Arnbjerg-Nielsen  |D Karsten  |u Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark  |4 aut 
773 0 |t Climate Dynamics  |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg  |g 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3155-3169  |x 0930-7575  |q 44:11-12<3155  |1 2015  |2 44  |o 382 
856 4 0 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4  |q text/html  |z Onlinezugriff via DOI 
898 |a BK010053  |b XK010053  |c XK010000 
900 7 |a Metadata rights reserved  |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence  |2 nationallicence 
908 |D 1  |a research-article  |2 jats 
949 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |F NATIONALLICENCE  |b NL-springer 
950 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |P 856  |E 40  |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4  |q text/html  |z Onlinezugriff via DOI 
950 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |P 700  |E 1-  |a Gregersen  |D Ida  |u Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark  |4 aut 
950 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |P 700  |E 1-  |a Madsen  |D Henrik  |u DHI, Agern Alle 5, 2970, Hørsholm, Denmark  |4 aut 
950 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |P 700  |E 1-  |a Rosbjerg  |D Dan  |u Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark  |4 aut 
950 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |P 700  |E 1-  |a Arnbjerg-Nielsen  |D Karsten  |u Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark  |4 aut 
950 |B NATIONALLICENCE  |P 773  |E 0-  |t Climate Dynamics  |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg  |g 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3155-3169  |x 0930-7575  |q 44:11-12<3155  |1 2015  |2 44  |o 382