caa a22 4500 605474672 CHVBK 20210128100348.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4 Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden [Elektronische Daten] [Ida Gregersen, Henrik Madsen, Dan Rosbjerg, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen] A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general increase from 1874 to present and an oscillation with a cycle of 25-40years. The magnitude of the extreme events also oscillates, but with a cycle of 15-30years and a smaller amplitude. Regional analysis of a larger Danish dataset with a shorter observations period found a countrywide low period in 1970-1979. It is furthermore concluded that the oscillation signal along the west coast of Denmark is dominated by the changeable coastal weather of this region. The eastern part of Denmark shows a more consistent signal, which partly can be explained by an index derived from sea level pressure differences between Gibraltar and Haparanda. The identification of a cyclic pattern in the extreme rainfall is highly relevant for our understanding of the non-stationarities in flood hazard. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Extreme rainfall nationallicence Multi-decadal oscillation nationallicence Natural variation nationallicence East Atlantic pattern nationallicence Gregersen Ida Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark aut Madsen Henrik DHI, Agern Alle 5, 2970, Hørsholm, Denmark aut Rosbjerg Dan Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark aut Arnbjerg-Nielsen Karsten Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3155-3169 0930-7575 44:11-12<3155 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gregersen Ida Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Madsen Henrik DHI, Agern Alle 5, 2970, Hørsholm, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rosbjerg Dan Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Arnbjerg-Nielsen Karsten Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, 2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/11-12(2015-06-01), 3155-3169 0930-7575 44:11-12<3155 2015 44 382