caa a22 4500 60547477X CHVBK 20210128100349.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2203-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2203-8 Influence of Amazonian deforestation on the future evolution of regional surface fluxes, circulation, surface temperature and precipitation [Elektronische Daten] [Quentin Lejeune, Edouard Davin, Benoit Guillod, Sonia Seneviratne] The extent of the Amazon rainforest is projected to drastically decrease in future decades because of land-use changes. Previous climate modelling studies have found that the biogeophysical effects of future Amazonian deforestation will likely increase surface temperatures and reduce precipitation locally. However, the magnitude of these changes and the potential existence of tipping points in the underlying relationships is still highly uncertain. Using a regional climate model at a resolution of about 50km over the South American continent, we perform four ERA-interim-driven simulations with prescribed land cover maps corresponding to present-day vegetation, two deforestation scenarios for the twenty-first century, and a totally-deforested Amazon case. In response to projected land cover changes for 2100, we find an annual mean surface temperature increase of $$0.5\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ 0.5 ∘ C over the Amazonian region and an annual mean decrease in rainfall of 0.17mm/day compared to present-day conditions. These estimates reach $$0.8\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ 0.8 ∘ C and 0.22mm/day in the total-deforestation case. We also compare our results to those from 28 previous (regional and global) climatemodelling experiments. We show that the historical development of climate models did not modify the median estimate of the Amazonian climate sensitivity to deforestation, but led to a reduction of its uncertainty. Our results suggest that the biogeophysical effects of deforestation alone are unlikely to lead to a tipping point in the evolution of the regional climate under present-day climate conditions. However, the conducted synthesis of the literature reveals that this behaviour may be model-dependent, and the greenhouse gas-induced climate forcing and biogeochemical feedbacks should also be taken into account to fully assess the future climate of this region. The Author(s), 2014 Land-use and land-cover changes nationallicence Amazonian deforestation nationallicence Tipping points nationallicence Twenty-first century nationallicence Lejeune Quentin Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut Davin Edouard Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut Guillod Benoit Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut Seneviratne Sonia Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2769-2786 0930-7575 44:9-10<2769 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2203-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2203-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lejeune Quentin Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Davin Edouard Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Guillod Benoit Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Seneviratne Sonia Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2769-2786 0930-7575 44:9-10<2769 2015 44 382