caa a22 4500 605474877 CHVBK 20210128100349.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2400-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2400-5 Understanding and predicting the strong Southern Annular Mode and its impact on the record wet east Australian spring 2010 [Elektronische Daten] [Eun-Pa Lim, Harry Hendon] In 2010 eastern Australia experienced its wettest spring on record, which has been largely attributed to a strong La Niña event in conjunction with an extraordinary positive excursion of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). La Niña impacts would be expected to have been predictable months in advance, but predictability of the occurrence of the strong SAM is less known. We explore the predictability of the strong SAM in austral spring 2010 and its contribution to the extreme wet conditions in eastern Australia, using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical seasonal forecast system (POAMA2). Seasonal forecasts from POAMA2 were skilful in predicting the wet conditions over eastern Australia at up to 2 month lead time as a result of a good prediction of the impacts of the ongoing La Niña and the development of a strong positive excursion of the SAM. Forecast sensitivity experiments on initial conditions demonstrate that (1) the strong La Niña was a necessary condition for promoting the positive phase of SAM (high SAM) and the anomalous wet conditions over eastern Australia during October to November 2010; but (2) internal atmospheric processes were important for producing the moderate strength of the high SAM in September 2010 and for amplifying the strength of the high SAM forced by La Niña in October to November 2010; and (3) the strong high SAM was an important factor for the extremity of the Australian rainfall in late spring 2010. Therefore, high quality atmosphere and ocean initial conditions were both essential for the successful prediction of the extreme climate during austral spring 2010. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 La Niña 2010 nationallicence Southern Annular Mode 2010 nationallicence Australian rainfall extreme 2010 nationallicence Seasonal forecasts nationallicence Lim Eun-Pa Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut Hendon Harry Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2807-2824 0930-7575 44:9-10<2807 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2400-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2400-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lim Eun-Pa Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hendon Harry Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2807-2824 0930-7575 44:9-10<2807 2015 44 382