caa a22 4500 605474885 CHVBK 20210128100349.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2177-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2177-6 Current and future climate variability associated with wintertime precipitation in alpine Australia [Elektronische Daten] [Sonya Fiddes, Alexandre Pezza] The Australian Alps, located in the southeast corner of the continent, are home to important ecologies and industries, including water supply, hydroelectricity and ski resorts. Sharp topography and prevailing westerly winds generate a unique microclimate with cool temperatures and abundant precipitation and is crucial to much of greater southeastern Australia's water supply. Here we study the western, high and eastern slopes separately, exploring the global climate drivers associated with wintertime precipitation variability. The results show that while total precipitation is significantly declining on the western and high slopes, the total rain is not significantly changing on the eastern side. These differing trends are thought be a result of the changing nature of the westerly storm track and the subtropical ridge. Interestingly, the west/high wintertime rainfall decline is seen primarily as a reduction in the intensity of events, as the number of rainfall days per season has remained relatively constant throughout the analysis. The synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation are identified and shown to be well correlated with the total seasonal precipitation, suggesting a great importance of the extreme weather signatures in modulating the longer term climate. This correlation is used to calculate a number of climate indices relying on dynamical indicators such as pressure and temperature gradients, helping simulate the rainfall variability within the area. By exploring contrasting Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 models from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industry Research Organization's Representative ClimateFutures Framework, we estimate using indices of the circulation dynamics that the west/high wintertime rainfall trend will continue to decline whilst rainfall in the eastern region will remain relatively stable. This result adds new light into future precipitation trends for the area, given the intrinsic difficulty of climate models to correctly represent precipitation behavior over the region. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Rainfall nationallicence Alpine nationallicence Australia nationallicence Climate nationallicence Variability nationallicence Fiddes Sonya School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut Pezza Alexandre School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2571-2587 0930-7575 44:9-10<2571 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2177-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2177-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fiddes Sonya School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pezza Alexandre School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2571-2587 0930-7575 44:9-10<2571 2015 44 382