Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
| LEADER | caa a22 4500 | ||
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| 001 | 605474974 | ||
| 003 | CHVBK | ||
| 005 | 20210128100350.0 | ||
| 007 | cr unu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Weiwen Wang, Wen Zhou, Yun Li, Xin Wang, Dongxiao Wang] |
| 520 | 3 | |a A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960-2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191-205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Hot spell model |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Extreme value theory |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a CMIP5 |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang |D Weiwen |u Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhou |D Wen |u Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li |D Yun |u CSIRO Computational Informatics, 6913, Wembley, WA, Australia |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang |D Xin |u State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang |D Dongxiao |u State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2859-2872 |x 0930-7575 |q 44:9-10<2859 |1 2015 |2 44 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Wang |D Weiwen |u Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Zhou |D Wen |u Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Li |D Yun |u CSIRO Computational Informatics, 6913, Wembley, WA, Australia |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Wang |D Xin |u State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Wang |D Dongxiao |u State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2859-2872 |x 0930-7575 |q 44:9-10<2859 |1 2015 |2 44 |o 382 | ||