caa a22 4500 605474974 CHVBK 20210128100350.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China [Elektronische Daten] [Weiwen Wang, Wen Zhou, Yun Li, Xin Wang, Dongxiao Wang] A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960-2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191-205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Hot spell model nationallicence Extreme value theory nationallicence CMIP5 nationallicence Wang Weiwen Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China aut Zhou Wen Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China aut Li Yun CSIRO Computational Informatics, 6913, Wembley, WA, Australia aut Wang Xin State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China aut Wang Dongxiao State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2859-2872 0930-7575 44:9-10<2859 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Weiwen Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhou Wen Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 00852, Hong Kong, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li Yun CSIRO Computational Informatics, 6913, Wembley, WA, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Xin State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Dongxiao State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2859-2872 0930-7575 44:9-10<2859 2015 44 382