caa a22 4500 605475008 CHVBK 20210128100350.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2398-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2398-8 On the potential of extratropical SST anomalies for improving climate predictions [Elektronische Daten] [Arun Kumar, Hui Wang] Skill for initialized decadal predictions for atmospheric and terrestrial variability is posited to reside in successful prediction of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the low-frequency modes of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, for example, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). So far, assessments of the skill of atmospheric and terrestrial variability in decadal predictions, however, have not been encouraging. Similarly, in the context of seasonal climate variability, teleconnections between SSTs associated with PDO and AMO and terrestrial climate have also been noted, but the same SST information used in predictive mode has failed to demonstrate convincing gains in skill. Are these results an artifact of model biases, or more a consequence of some fundamental property of coupled evolution of ocean-atmosphere system in extratropical latitudes, and the manner in which extratropical SST anomalies modulate (or constrain) atmospheric variability? Based on revisiting an analysis of a simple model that replicates the essential characteristics of coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in extratropical latitudes, it is demonstrated that lack of additional skill in predicting atmospheric and terrestrial variability is more a consequence of fundamental characteristics of coupled evolution of ocean-atmosphere system. The results based on simple models are also substantiated following an analysis of a set of seasonal hindcasts with a fully coupled model. Springer-Verlag (outside the USA), 2014 Climate prediction nationallicence Seasonal prediction nationallicence Decadal prediction nationallicence Skill of climate predictions nationallicence Kumar Arun Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut Wang Hui Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2557-2569 0930-7575 44:9-10<2557 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2398-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2398-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kumar Arun Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Hui Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, 20740, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2557-2569 0930-7575 44:9-10<2557 2015 44 382