caa a22 4500 605475059 CHVBK 20210128100350.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7 The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model [Elektronische Daten] [J. Baehr, K. Fröhlich, M. Botzet, D. Domeisen, L. Kornblueh, D. Notz, R. Piontek, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, W. Müller] A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Baehr J. Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Fröhlich K. DWD, Offenbach, Germany aut Botzet M. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Domeisen D. Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Kornblueh L. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Notz D. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Piontek R. Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Pohlmann H. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Tietsche S. NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Müller W. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2723-2735 0930-7575 44:9-10<2723 2015 44 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Baehr J. Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fröhlich K. DWD, Offenbach, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Botzet M. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Domeisen D. Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kornblueh L. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Notz D. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Piontek R. Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pohlmann H. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tietsche S. NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Müller W. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 44/9-10(2015-05-01), 2723-2735 0930-7575 44:9-10<2723 2015 44 382