caa a22 4500 605517509 CHVBK 20210128100720.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10533-015-0149-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10533-015-0149-5 The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams [Elektronische Daten] [Meredith LaBeau, Alex Mayer, Veronica Griffis, David Watkins, Dale Robertson, Rabi Gyawali] In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads. Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 2015 Phosphorous nationallicence Climate change nationallicence Watersheds nationallicence LaBeau Meredith Calumet Electronics, 49913, Calumet, MI, USA aut Mayer Alex Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 49931, Houghton, MI, USA aut Griffis Veronica Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 49931, Houghton, MI, USA aut Watkins David Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 49931, Houghton, MI, USA aut Robertson Dale Wisconsin Water Science Center, United States Geological Survey, 53562, Middleton, WI, USA aut Gyawali Rabi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin - Madison, 53706, Madison, WI, USA aut Biogeochemistry Springer International Publishing 126/1-2(2015-11-01), 153-172 0168-2563 126:1-2<153 2015 126 10533 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-015-0149-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-015-0149-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- LaBeau Meredith Calumet Electronics, 49913, Calumet, MI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mayer Alex Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 49931, Houghton, MI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Griffis Veronica Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 49931, Houghton, MI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Watkins David Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 49931, Houghton, MI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Robertson Dale Wisconsin Water Science Center, United States Geological Survey, 53562, Middleton, WI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gyawali Rabi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin - Madison, 53706, Madison, WI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Biogeochemistry Springer International Publishing 126/1-2(2015-11-01), 153-172 0168-2563 126:1-2<153 2015 126 10533