caa a22 4500 60552680X CHVBK 20210128100805.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10531-015-0877-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10531-015-0877-9 Population viability models for an endangered endemic subtropical butterfly: effects of density and fire on population dynamics and risk of extinction [Elektronische Daten] [Robert McElderry, Mark Salvato, Carol Horvitz] Population viability analyses for butterflies typically use metapopulation models, but for endemic species with no redundancy among subpopulations, we need to understand local population dynamics. However, little is known about the sensitivity of butterfly population vital rates and viability to disturbances such as fire. We fit quadratic models to monthly butterfly count data (1999-2014) to estimate an annual population density index that represents density during peak abundance each year. Relative population growth rate was estimated using a time series of the population density index, and population dynamics parameters r 0 and K were estimated by fitting relative growth rates (RGRs) to density independent and dependent models that include the effects of fire. Population models were simulated 20 and 100years into the future to evaluate the sensitivity of extinction probability to density dependent dynamics and fire. Although the density independent model had the highest relative likelihood, density dependent models produced population trajectories with behavior more congruent with data from the Anaea troglodyta floridalis population. The absence of fire increased sensitivity of RGR to density, and the occurrence of fire buffered this sensitivity by increasing carrying capacity. Extinction risk was most sensitive to the inclusion of density dependent dynamics. Density dependent models provided a more optimistic outlook relative to density independent models (8 vs. 66% probability of extinction in 20years). Our simulations suggest that improving carrying capacity would provide the best buffer to extinction for this endangered endemic butterfly. Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht, 2015 Anaea troglodyta floridalis nationallicence Endemism nationallicence Everglades National Park nationallicence Leafwing butterflies nationallicence Pine rocklands nationallicence Stochastic disturbance nationallicence McElderry Robert University of Miami, 190 Cox Science Center, 1301 Memorial Drive, 33146, Coral Gables, FL, USA aut Salvato Mark 32962, Vero Beach, FL, USA aut Horvitz Carol University of Miami, 190 Cox Science Center, 1301 Memorial Drive, 33146, Coral Gables, FL, USA aut Biodiversity and Conservation Springer Netherlands 24/7(2015-07-01), 1589-1608 0960-3115 24:7<1589 2015 24 10531 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-015-0877-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-015-0877-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- McElderry Robert University of Miami, 190 Cox Science Center, 1301 Memorial Drive, 33146, Coral Gables, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Salvato Mark 32962, Vero Beach, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Horvitz Carol University of Miami, 190 Cox Science Center, 1301 Memorial Drive, 33146, Coral Gables, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Biodiversity and Conservation Springer Netherlands 24/7(2015-07-01), 1589-1608 0960-3115 24:7<1589 2015 24 10531