caa a22 4500 605538735 CHVBK 20210128100903.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11053-014-9246-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11053-014-9246-8 Potential Impact of Unconventional Oil Resources on Major Oil-Producing Countries: Scenario Analysis with the ACEGES Model [Elektronische Daten] [Ken'ichi Matsumoto, Vlasios Voudouris] The role of unconventional oil is increasing in global energy markets. Although conventional oil is being depleted, unconventional oil might manage or eliminate supply constraints in meeting the demand for oil without large positive step changes in the prices. In this study, we use the ACEGES model, which is agent-based, to explore the potential impact of unconventional oil on the evolution of the oil markets, focusing on four important oil-producing countries. We also use quantile sheets to summarize the simulation results. Given the estimated potential of conventional and unconventional resources, the results suggest that the production profiles will change tremendously. Although countries rich in conventional oil, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, will still occupy the global oil markets for approximately the first half of this century, oil production in countries with rich unconventional resources, such as Canada and Venezuela, will be higher in production than Saudi Arabia and Iran from 2050 to 2060. This change in production means that the market power in the global oil markets will shift from Middle Eastern countries to Canada and Venezuela in this century. International Association for Mathematical Geosciences, 2014 Unconventional oil nationallicence Resource depletion nationallicence Uncertainties nationallicence Scenario analysis nationallicence ACEGES nationallicence Matsumoto Ken'ichi School of Environmental Science, The University of Shiga Prefecture, 2500 Hassaka, 522-8533, Hikone, Shiga, Japan aut Voudouris Vlasios Research Centre for Energy Management, ESCP Europe Business School, 527 Finchley Road, NW3 7BG, London, UK aut Natural Resources Research Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/1(2015-03-01), 107-119 1520-7439 24:1<107 2015 24 11053 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9246-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9246-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Matsumoto Ken'ichi School of Environmental Science, The University of Shiga Prefecture, 2500 Hassaka, 522-8533, Hikone, Shiga, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Voudouris Vlasios Research Centre for Energy Management, ESCP Europe Business School, 527 Finchley Road, NW3 7BG, London, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Resources Research Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/1(2015-03-01), 107-119 1520-7439 24:1<107 2015 24 11053