caa a22 4500 605538743 CHVBK 20210128100903.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11053-014-9234-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11053-014-9234-z S-curve Model of Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Development [Elektronische Daten] [Anjian Wang, Gaoshang Wang, Qishen Chen, Wenjia Yu, Kun Yan, Haibo Yang] It is widely recognized that different economic development stages are associated with distinctive patterns of energy consumption. Forecast of future energy consumption for an expected GDP per capita has been an intriguing subject for many economists, policy makers, and resource scientists worldwide. This article takes a pragmatic approach to the examination of intrinsic relations between energy consumption and economic development using the historical data of past 160years from 18 developed countries and regions. This analysis shows that the relations between energy consumption and GDP can be described by an S-curve model. The patterns of energy consumption in different economic development stages, including agricultural, industrialized, and post-industrialized societies, are characterized by different transitional thresholds, which are here referred to as the takeoff point, turning point, and zero-growth point of the energy consumption per capita. A thorough discussion is given to the implications of these critical points in the curve. Using a mathematical model and the critical thresholds, the S-curve can be divided into four transitional phases: slow growing phase, rapid growing phase, growth declining phase, and stagnant phase. The analysis forms a foundation for forecast of energy demands in different development stages in different countries. International Association for Mathematical Geosciences, 2014 Energy consumption nationallicence GDP nationallicence S-curve model nationallicence Critical transitional thresholds nationallicence Wang Anjian Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut Wang Gaoshang Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut Chen Qishen Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut Yu Wenjia Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut Yan Kun Xi'an Modern Nonlinear Science Applying Institute, 710061, Xi'an, China aut Yang Haibo Advanced Personnel Training Center of Daqing Oilfield, 163458, Daqing, China aut Natural Resources Research Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/1(2015-03-01), 53-64 1520-7439 24:1<53 2015 24 11053 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9234-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9234-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Anjian Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Gaoshang Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chen Qishen Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yu Wenjia Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 100037, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yan Kun Xi'an Modern Nonlinear Science Applying Institute, 710061, Xi'an, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yang Haibo Advanced Personnel Training Center of Daqing Oilfield, 163458, Daqing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Resources Research Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/1(2015-03-01), 53-64 1520-7439 24:1<53 2015 24 11053