caa a22 4500 605538824 CHVBK 20210128100904.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6 Projection of Iron Ore Production [Elektronische Daten] [Steve Mohr, Damien Giurco, Mohan Yellishetty, James Ward, Gavin Mudd] A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782 , 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource of 346 Gt of iron ore. Production is estimated to have a choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which production rapidly declines. The undulating plateau is due to Chinese iron ore production peaking earlier followed by Australia and Brazil in turn. Alternative scenarios indicate that the model is sensitive to increases in Australian and Brazilian resources, and that African iron ore production can shift the peak date only if the African Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) is 5 times larger than the estimate used. Changes to the demand for iron ore driven by substitution or recycling are not modelled. The relatively near-term peak in iron ore supply is likely to create a global challenge to manufacturing and construction and ultimately the world economy. International Association for Mathematical Geosciences, 2014 Iron ore nationallicence Projected production nationallicence Resource depletion nationallicence Mohr Steve Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, 2007, Ultimo, NSW, Australia aut Giurco Damien Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, 2007, Ultimo, NSW, Australia aut Yellishetty Mohan Division of Mining & Resources Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Wellington Road, 3800, Clayton, VIC, Australia aut Ward James School of Natural & Built Environments, University of South Australia, GPO Box 2471, 5000, Adelaide, SA, Australia aut Mudd Gavin Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Wellington Road, 3800, Clayton, VIC, Australia aut Natural Resources Research Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/3(2015-09-01), 317-327 1520-7439 24:3<317 2015 24 11053 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mohr Steve Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, 2007, Ultimo, NSW, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Giurco Damien Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, 2007, Ultimo, NSW, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yellishetty Mohan Division of Mining & Resources Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Wellington Road, 3800, Clayton, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ward James School of Natural & Built Environments, University of South Australia, GPO Box 2471, 5000, Adelaide, SA, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mudd Gavin Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Wellington Road, 3800, Clayton, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Resources Research Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/3(2015-09-01), 317-327 1520-7439 24:3<317 2015 24 11053