caa a22 4500 60554669X CHVBK 20210128100942.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10236-015-0897-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10236-015-0897-8 Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products—a multi-model ensemble for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea [Elektronische Daten] [Inga Golbeck, Xin Li, Frank Janssen, Thorger Brüning, Jacob Nielsen, Vibeke Huess, Johan Söderkvist, Bjarne Büchmann, Simo-Matti Siiriä, Olga Vähä-Piikkiö, Bruce Hackett, Nils Kristensen, Harald Engedahl, Ed Blockley, Alistair Sellar, Priidik Lagemaa, Jose Ozer, Sebastien Legrand, Patrik Ljungemyr, Lars Axell] Multi-model ensembles for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface currents (SSC), and water transports have been developed for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea using outputs from several operational ocean forecasting models provided by different institutes. The individual models differ in model code, resolution, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and data assimilation. The ensembles are produced on a daily basis. Daily statistics are calculated for each parameter giving information about the spread of the forecasts with standard deviation, ensemble mean and median, and coefficient of variation. High forecast uncertainty, i.e., for SSS and SSC, was found in the Skagerrak, Kattegat (Transition Area between North Sea and Baltic Sea), and the Norwegian Channel. Based on the data collected, longer-term statistical analyses have been done, such as a comparison with satellite data for SST and evaluation of the deviation between forecasts in temporal and spatial scale. Regions of high forecast uncertainty for SSS and SSC have been detected in the Transition Area and the Norwegian Channel where a large spread between the models might evolve due to differences in simulating the frontal structures and their movements. A distinct seasonal pattern could be distinguished for SST with high uncertainty between the forecasts during summer. Forecasts with relatively high deviation from the multi-model ensemble (MME) products or the other individual forecasts were detected for each region and each parameter. The comparison with satellite data showed that the error of the MME products is lowest compared to those of the ensemble members. The Author(s), 2015 Multi-model ensemble nationallicence Uncertainty estimates nationallicence Ocean forecast nationallicence Baltic Sea nationallicence North Sea nationallicence Satellite data nationallicence Golbeck Inga Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut Li Xin Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut Janssen Frank Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut Brüning Thorger Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut Nielsen Jacob Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark aut Huess Vibeke Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark aut Söderkvist Johan Defence Centre for Operational Oceanography, Ballerup, Denmark aut Büchmann Bjarne Defence Centre for Operational Oceanography, Ballerup, Denmark aut Siiriä Simo-Matti Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland aut Vähä-Piikkiö Olga Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland aut Hackett Bruce Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway aut Kristensen Nils Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway aut Engedahl Harald Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway aut Blockley Ed Met Office, Exeter, UK aut Sellar Alistair Met Office, Exeter, UK aut Lagemaa Priidik Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia aut Ozer Jose Operational Directorate Natural Environment, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium aut Legrand Sebastien Operational Directorate Natural Environment, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium aut Ljungemyr Patrik Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden aut Axell Lars Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden aut Ocean Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 65/12(2015-12-01), 1603-1631 1616-7341 65:12<1603 2015 65 10236 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0897-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0897-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Golbeck Inga Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li Xin Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Janssen Frank Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Brüning Thorger Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nielsen Jacob Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Huess Vibeke Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Söderkvist Johan Defence Centre for Operational Oceanography, Ballerup, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Büchmann Bjarne Defence Centre for Operational Oceanography, Ballerup, Denmark aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Siiriä Simo-Matti Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vähä-Piikkiö Olga Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hackett Bruce Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kristensen Nils Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Engedahl Harald Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Blockley Ed Met Office, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sellar Alistair Met Office, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lagemaa Priidik Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ozer Jose Operational Directorate Natural Environment, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Legrand Sebastien Operational Directorate Natural Environment, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ljungemyr Patrik Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Axell Lars Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ocean Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 65/12(2015-12-01), 1603-1631 1616-7341 65:12<1603 2015 65 10236