caa a22 4500 605546886 CHVBK 20210128100943.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10236-015-0825-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10236-015-0825-y Behrens Arno Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany aut Development of an ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves in a coastal area [Elektronische Daten] [Arno Behrens] An ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves has been developed and applied on a local scale to the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. U10-wind fields generated by the COSMO-DE-EPS upstream forecast chain of the German Met Service (DWD: Deutscher Wetterdienst) have been used as the driving force for the third-generation spectral wave model WAM. The atmospheric chain includes four different global models that provide boundary values for four regional COSMO-EU realisations. Each of those drive five COSMO-DE members, respectively, with different sets of physical parameterisations, so that finally 20 members are available to run 20 corresponding wave ensemble members of the coastal wave model CWAM (Coastal WAve Model) for the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. It is the first time that in an ensemble prediction system for ocean waves, an atmospheric model of such a fine spatial resolution of 2.8km has been combined with a wave model running on a model grid with a mesh size of 900m only. Test runs with the wave ensemble prediction system have been executed for two entire months (April 2013 and June 2014) and for an 8-day storm case (Xaver) in December 2013 in order to check whether such a system could be a reasonable step to improve the future operational wave forecasts of the DWD. The results computed by the different wave model members agree fairly well with available buoy data. The differences between the results for the integrated wave parameters of the individual members are small only, but more pronounced in extreme storm situations. Finally, the statistical analysis of the comparisons with measurements show without exception slightly improved values for the ensemble mean of the wave ensemble members compared with the usual deterministic routine control run. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Ensemble prediction nationallicence Ocean surface waves nationallicence COSMO-DE nationallicence Spectral wave model WAM nationallicence Wave forecasting nationallicence German Bight nationallicence Ocean Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 65/4(2015-04-01), 469-486 1616-7341 65:4<469 2015 65 10236 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0825-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0825-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Behrens Arno Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ocean Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 65/4(2015-04-01), 469-486 1616-7341 65:4<469 2015 65 10236