caa a22 4500 605546932 CHVBK 20210128100943.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) [Elektronische Daten] [Imen Turki, Benoit Laignel, Nabil Kakeh, Laetitia Chevalier, Stephane Costa] This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7cm for 1 to 30days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80%. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85%. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Sea level forecast nationallicence Astronomical tides nationallicence Nontidal residual surges nationallicence ARMA nationallicence Sea level pressure nationallicence Turki Imen UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics ‘M2C' University of Rouen, 76821, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France aut Laignel Benoit UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics ‘M2C' University of Rouen, 76821, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France aut Kakeh Nabil Department of Applied Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Spain aut Chevalier Laetitia UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics ‘M2C' University of Rouen, 76821, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France aut Costa Stephane University of Caen Low Normandy, Geophen UMR-CNRS LETG, 6554, Normandy, France aut Ocean Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 65/4(2015-04-01), 509-521 1616-7341 65:4<509 2015 65 10236 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Turki Imen UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics ‘M2C' University of Rouen, 76821, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Laignel Benoit UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics ‘M2C' University of Rouen, 76821, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kakeh Nabil Department of Applied Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chevalier Laetitia UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics ‘M2C' University of Rouen, 76821, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Costa Stephane University of Caen Low Normandy, Geophen UMR-CNRS LETG, 6554, Normandy, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ocean Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 65/4(2015-04-01), 509-521 1616-7341 65:4<509 2015 65 10236