caa a22 4500 60616460X CHVBK 20210128100649.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10144-014-0456-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10144-014-0456-z Using multistate capture-mark-recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer [Elektronische Daten] [Lucile Marescot, Tavis Forrester, David Casady, Heiko Wittmer] Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture-mark-recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1year old was consistently low (0.56±0.18 for yearlings, 0.77±0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55±0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24±0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ=0.82±0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes. The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan, 2014 Deer nationallicence Population dynamics nationallicence Predator-prey interactions nationallicence Puma nationallicence Ungulates nationallicence Vital rates nationallicence Marescot Lucile Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, 95616, Davis, CA, USA aut Forrester Tavis Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, 95616, Davis, CA, USA aut Casady David California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Large Mammal Conservation Program, 1812 9th Street, 95811, Sacramento, CA, USA aut Wittmer Heiko Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, 95616, Davis, CA, USA aut Population Ecology Springer Japan 57/1(2015-01-01), 185-197 1438-3896 57:1<185 2015 57 10144 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0456-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0456-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Marescot Lucile Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, 95616, Davis, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Forrester Tavis Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, 95616, Davis, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Casady David California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Large Mammal Conservation Program, 1812 9th Street, 95811, Sacramento, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wittmer Heiko Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, 95616, Davis, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Population Ecology Springer Japan 57/1(2015-01-01), 185-197 1438-3896 57:1<185 2015 57 10144