caa a22 4500 606164685 CHVBK 20210128100650.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10144-014-0469-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10144-014-0469-7 Demography of plains zebras ( Equus quagga ) under heavy predation [Elektronische Daten] [Sophie Grange, Florian Barnier, Patrick Duncan, Jean-Michel Gaillard, Marion Valeix, Hlengisizwe Ncube, Stéphanie Périquet, Hervé Fritz] In natural ecosystems, ungulate densities show strong temporal variations. The ecological processes driving these fluctuations are complex: food limitation and predation are both important and can interact. Survival rates are central to this debate, but data are sparse for tropical ecosystems. Here, we estimate age- and sex-specific survival rates for plains zebra in Hwange National Park, a nutrient-poor savanna with a high predator-prey ratio. We estimated survival from a detailed Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) monitoring based on 248 individual life histories, for the first time in an African grazer. We controlled for variations in detection probabilities among adult females, which resulted from their social structure. As expected, annual survival was low during the first year (0.441); increased in yearlings (0.560) and peaked at 0.795 and 0.847 in adult males and females respectively. The survival of adult females was lower during the dry season, which probably resulted from higher predation due to predictable movements of zebras to waterholes. Survival at all ages was low compared to ungulates without predators. The demographic model we constructed showed a declining trend (λ=0.94), which was consistent with the data from road counts ( $$\hat{\lambda }$$ λ ^ =0.92). Life Table Response Experiment (LTRE) analyses using the Serengeti and Kruger populations as references showed that the main cause of this declining trend in the Hwange population was low survival in yearling and adult females; low foal survival also contributed. In this ecosystem, predation is likely to be the main ecological process causing low survival, and therefore a decline in the zebra population. The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan, 2015 CMR nationallicence Equids nationallicence Population limitation nationallicence Predation nationallicence Tropical ecosystems nationallicence Grange Sophie Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS/Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France aut Barnier Florian Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS/Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France aut Duncan Patrick Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS/Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France aut Gaillard Jean-Michel UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut Valeix Marion UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut Ncube Hlengisizwe Department of Forest Resources and Wildlife Management, National University of Science and Technology, Ascot, P.O. Box AC 939, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe aut Périquet Stéphanie UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut Fritz Hervé UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut Population Ecology Springer Japan 57/1(2015-01-01), 201-214 1438-3896 57:1<201 2015 57 10144 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0469-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0469-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Grange Sophie Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS/Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Barnier Florian Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS/Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Duncan Patrick Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS/Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Beauvoir-sur-Niort, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gaillard Jean-Michel UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Valeix Marion UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ncube Hlengisizwe Department of Forest Resources and Wildlife Management, National University of Science and Technology, Ascot, P.O. Box AC 939, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Périquet Stéphanie UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fritz Hervé UMR CNRS 5558 ‘Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive', Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Population Ecology Springer Japan 57/1(2015-01-01), 201-214 1438-3896 57:1<201 2015 57 10144