caa a22 4500 606164782 CHVBK 20210128100650.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10144-015-0498-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10144-015-0498-x Exploring the drivers of wildlife population dynamics from insufficient data by Bayesian model averaging [Elektronische Daten] [Yutaka Osada, Takeo Kuriyama, Masahiko Asada, Hiroyuki Yokomizo, Tadashi Miyashita] A long-standing interest in ecology and wildlife management is to find drivers of wildlife population dynamics because it is crucial for implementing the effective wildlife management. Recent studies have demonstrated the usefulness of state-space modeling for this purpose, but we often confront the lack of the necessary time-series data. This is particularly common in wildlife management because of limited funds or early stage of data collection. In this study, we proposed a Bayesian model averaging technique in a state-space modeling framework for identifying the drivers of wildlife population dynamics from limited data. To exemplify the utility of Bayesian model averaging for wildlife management, we illustrate here the population dynamics of wild boars Sus scrofa in Chiba prefecture, central Japan. Despite the fact that our data are limited in both temporal and spatial resolution, Bayesian model averaging revealed the potential influence of bamboo forests and abandoned agricultural fields on wild boar population dynamics, and largely enhanced model predictability compared to the full model. Although Bayesian model averaging is not commonly used in ecology and wildlife management, our case study demonstrated that it may help to find influential drivers of wildlife population dynamics and develop a better management plan even from limited time-series data. The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan, 2015 Agricultural abandonment nationallicence Human land use nationallicence Model predictability nationallicence State-space model nationallicence Sus scrofa nationallicence Wildlife management nationallicence Osada Yutaka Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan aut Kuriyama Takeo Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan aut Asada Masahiko ASADA Wildlife Management Company (AMAC, LLC), Chiba, Japan aut Yokomizo Hiroyuki Center for Environmental Risk Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan aut Miyashita Tadashi Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan aut Population Ecology Springer Japan 57/3(2015-07-01), 485-493 1438-3896 57:3<485 2015 57 10144 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-015-0498-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-015-0498-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Osada Yutaka Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kuriyama Takeo Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Asada Masahiko ASADA Wildlife Management Company (AMAC, LLC), Chiba, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yokomizo Hiroyuki Center for Environmental Risk Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Miyashita Tadashi Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Population Ecology Springer Japan 57/3(2015-07-01), 485-493 1438-3896 57:3<485 2015 57 10144