caa a22 4500 606165800 CHVBK 20210128100655.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00168-015-0689-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00168-015-0689-6 Estimating regional trade flows using commercial vehicle survey data [Elektronische Daten] [Chris Bachmann, Chris Kennedy, Matthew Roorda] This paper presents a new method for estimating regional trade flows using transportation survey data describing commodity origin-destination flows. Explicit attention is paid to the difference between commodity flows and trade flows that arises from the presence of transhipment points. Observed commodity flows in the transportation survey data are converted to production-consumption trade flows that are consistent with the multi-regional input-output framework. Regional trade flow estimates are then reconciled with regional production and consumption estimates using a mathematical program that aims to make minimal adjustments while imposing known multi-regional input-output accounting identities. It is shown that commodities originating or terminating at a transhipment point should be reassigned to their probable production origins or consumption destinations as long as an unbiased sample of previous observations is available. As the number of observations increases, the prediction error of the production origin or consumption destination decreases exponentially. A real-world case study in the Province of Ontario in Canada demonstrates the feasibility of estimating interregional trade flows from commercial vehicle survey data and shows that the estimated pattern of trade flows is maintained after adjustments are made to satisfy accounting constraints. Therefore, it is possible to create a balanced multi-regional input-output model based on a commercial vehicle survey and the limited supplementary data available at the regional level. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Bachmann Chris Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, M5S 1A4, Toronto, ON, Canada aut Kennedy Chris Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, M5S 1A4, Toronto, ON, Canada aut Roorda Matthew Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, M5S 1A4, Toronto, ON, Canada aut The Annals of Regional Science Springer Berlin Heidelberg 54/3(2015-05-01), 855-876 0570-1864 54:3<855 2015 54 168 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-015-0689-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-015-0689-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bachmann Chris Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, M5S 1A4, Toronto, ON, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kennedy Chris Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, M5S 1A4, Toronto, ON, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Roorda Matthew Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, M5S 1A4, Toronto, ON, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- The Annals of Regional Science Springer Berlin Heidelberg 54/3(2015-05-01), 855-876 0570-1864 54:3<855 2015 54 168