caa a22 4500 606167676 CHVBK 20210128100703.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11127-015-0279-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11127-015-0279-2 Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany [Elektronische Daten] [Thiess Buettner, Bjoern Kauder] This paper explores whether and how political biases arise in an institutional setting where revenue forecasting is delegated to a body that includes experts from institutions neither part of nor controlled by the government. The empirical analysis focuses on the performance of German federal tax revenue forecasts, in the preparation of which the advice of external experts has a long tradition as an institutional safeguard. While, on average, revenue forecasts turn out to be unbiased, the results show that the government exerts an influence. In particular, optimism/pessimism in the government's GDP forecast helps to explain why the revenue forecast turns out too optimistic/pessimistic. In addition, governmental estimates of the revenue effects of tax-law changes are found to contribute to forecast errors. Springer Science+Business Media New York, 2015 Tax revenues nationallicence Forecasting nationallicence Rational prediction nationallicence External experts nationallicence Consensus forecast nationallicence Fiscal councils nationallicence Budgeting nationallicence Buettner Thiess University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Lange Gasse 20, 90403, Nuremberg, Germany aut Kauder Bjoern Ifo Institute, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679, Munich, Germany aut Public Choice Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 164/3-4(2015-09-01), 287-307 0048-5829 164:3-4<287 2015 164 11127 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-015-0279-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-015-0279-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Buettner Thiess University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Lange Gasse 20, 90403, Nuremberg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kauder Bjoern Ifo Institute, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679, Munich, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Public Choice Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 164/3-4(2015-09-01), 287-307 0048-5829 164:3-4<287 2015 164 11127